Ethereum (ETH) has been experiencing a difficult macro environment over the past six months, characterized by a persistent downtrend. Since March, ETH has struggled to maintain bullish momentum, frequently testing its long-term downtrend line as support.
Despite this, recent sentiment changes suggest that a recovery could be on the horizon. Key indicators like the MVRV Long/Short Difference have fallen into the negative zone for the first time since November 2023, marking a ten-month low. This indicates market indecisiveness rather than strong bearishness.
Short-term holders usually hold more speculative positions, while long-term holders are considered stronger. As both types of holders are at equilibrium, Ethereum's short-term price action might face continued pressure. However, the positive funding rate signals a hopeful outlook from traders who anticipate a price recovery.
In the near term, Ethereum's price is expected to remain rangebound between $2,681 and $2,344. ETH is currently recovering from an eight-month low and testing the $2,344 support level. Maintaining this level is crucial for avoiding further downsides and initiating a bullish trend. Otherwise, failing to hold this support risks falling to $2,170, which would invalidate a short-term bullish outlook.
