Taran Sabharwal, CEO of Stix, warns of a potential supply shock for Celestia (TIA) post-unlock on October 31, 2024, suggesting the market may underestimate its price impact. His analysis using on-chain data indicates a significant increase in circulating supply, yet only half of the expected sell pressure may materialize.
With OTC buyers hedging on perpetual futures, open interest has surged. This scenario might signal a bullish opportunity for spot buyers, counteracting some selling pressure. Sabharwal highlighted that OTC activity around Celestia has been substantial throughout the cycle, with traders seizing opportunities for significant profits.
Sabharwal also noted the insignificant OTC activity when TIA spiked to $20+, as sellers avoided discounts and remained risk-on. However, as TIA's value fell below $5, aggressive OTC activity resumed, with Stix facilitating approximately $60 million in TIA volume since July.
Renowned analyst Will Clemente concurs, observing compressed OTC discounts and a growing demand for TIA pre-unlock. With reaccumulation after an 80% drawdown and substantial OTC trading volume, Clemente believes Thursday's TIA unlock is unlikely to be bearish.
