BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes in his market analysis “Sugar High” lists four reasons to be bullish on Bitcoin for Q4 2024. Hayes uses skiing diet metaphors to explain fiscal approaches of central banks, likening interest rate cuts to quick energy snacks.
He highlights recent policy shifts by the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank, predicting lower rates will make Bitcoin more attractive. Hayes also warns of risks posed by a yen carry trade unwind unless central banks expand their balance sheets and engage in quantitative easing.
The US economy’s resilience, with only two quarters of negative real GDP growth since COVID-19, further supports his bullish stance. Hayes suggests rate cuts could be politically motivated rather than economically necessary.
Hayes presents four key reasons for a bullish Bitcoin outlook: Global Central Bank Policies, Increased Dollar Liquidity, Strategic Treasury General Account Usage, and the Bank of Japan's cautious interest rate approach. These factors create an environment favorable for Bitcoin’s growth.
As central banks increase liquidity, Bitcoin stands out due to its finite supply. Hayes predicts this could significantly boost its value, contrasting with concerns over inflation for other assets.
