The Bitcoin (BTC) market is currently giving mixed signals, hovering between the high of $64,500 and the low of $49,500. This piece examines key on-chain metrics that reflect market sentiment and investor actions.
Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) is an important metric indicating overall investor sentiment. Currently, NUPL stands at 0.45, suggesting that if investors sold now, they would average a 44% profit. This indicates a moderately positive market sentiment.
However, CryptoQuant reports that this NUPL value shows holders are hesitant to sell. This anxiety is due to uncertainties such as the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the looming US presidential elections.
Long-term Bitcoin holders are showing strong HODLing behavior, as reflected in the Binary Coin Days Destroyed (BCD) metric. This metric, currently at 0.28, indicates that these holders are not moving their coins, reflecting confidence in Bitcoin’s performance and market stability.
A combination of NUPL and BCD metrics suggests investors are wary of potential price downturns but are equally concerned about missing out on future gains.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, notes that the uncertainties around the US presidential election, CPI, and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will play a significant role in determining Bitcoin’s price targets.
Mati Greenspan, founder and CEO of Quantum Economics, advises caution. He mentions that Bitcoin’s price has stagnated in a sideways pattern for over six months, making it unpredictable when a breakout might occur.
If macroeconomic conditions are favorable, an increase in BTC demand could push its price toward the $64,520 resistance level, possibly targeting $68,599. Conversely, if bearish trends prevail, Bitcoin may fall to $49,516.
