Last Friday marked the fifth day since the successful completion of the Chang hard fork, overshadowed by significant sell-offs and a decline in Cardano’s (ADA) price. Despite the price drop, active addresses on the blockchain surged to a six-month high, briefly touching $0.35.
However, the situation has since shifted, with challenges now preventing higher trading in the near term. Cardano's active addresses rose to 54,800 on September 6, indicating a delayed positive response to the Chang hard fork. Despite this, 24-hour active addresses have since dropped to 24,900, reflecting a decline in user interest and engagement. This sharp decrease in active addresses suggests that the network's improvements have not yet resonated with users. If this trend continues, it could lead to further declines in Cardano’s price.
The liquidation heatmap supports this outlook by identifying high liquidity levels that might affect the price. In Cardano’s case, the liquidation heatmap shows many buy and sell orders at $0.33, $0.34, and $0.35. The $0.33 region appears to have the highest liquidity, likely causing Cardano’s price to drop to that region.
On the daily chart, Cardano’s price has formed a bearish divergence with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, which measures momentum. The negative MACD reading indicates that the buying volume does not support the uptrend, suggesting a potential price reversal. Using the Fibonacci retracement indicator, ADA’s price might attempt to retest $0.35 but is likely to face resistance in the same region, leading to a potential drop to $0.30.
However, this bearish outlook could be invalidated if momentum becomes extremely bullish, potentially pushing Cardano’s price to $0.39.
